buki's poker

2009-03-25T08:40:00.000-07:00

cashed at LAPT Uruguay

http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/lapt/2009/lapt-punta-del-este-season-2-interview-w-3-037704.html

full trip report:

ok,

so as you all know, i really concentrated on getting my mind and body in peak condition for this event. this one fact will give you an idea of my level of focus during this tournament:
you saw my goofy, soccer jersey-and-cowboy hat ensenble... what you DIDN'T see, was: the ENTIRE time i sat at the table, i sat there, with perfect posture; i had my chips in my perfect stacks in perfect position, in the exact place that allow me to check my hole cards with just my left hand without having to move my body at all. so picture me, expressionless except when i'm talking to someone; perfect posture, both hands flat on the table on either side of my stack. every time there's a deal, i collect the cards with my left hand, arrange them next to my stack and imperceptibly check the cards (i do this so ppl can hardly tell whether i've looked at them.) my hands go back to their starting position. when it's my action, i always check the cards again with my left hand (double check everything imo), put my hand back for about 'one-onethousand' ... and then muck with my left hand, or start measuring out my raise amount with my right hand. if i'm raising, i already know i'm raising, and to what amount... so i just stack that amount using the biggest denominations, and push them out to the middle; and then i go back to my starting position. once every hour or so i'd get up and move around and do a couple stretches cuz that helps keep the blood flowing and my concentration level up... and ppl seriously look at me wide-eyed like 'omg wtf is up with this guy... '

i had a rough start, but i had enough BBs that i just kept playing my game, and made sure i got max value everywhere, and before i knew it, i had bluffed the other tough player of the table out of a giant pot, and i had established myself as THE player on the table.
at dinner break, i had 40k, second stack on the table had like 22k... but that kind of dominance leads to desperation, which led to me losing A9cc<34dd AIPF, and TT<44 AIPF, and suddenly i'm down to 30k... then 28, then 26, then 24k, as new players join the table with decent stacks and have the audacity to 3bet me! this was a really tough 1 hour.
but of course, i had enough chips, that i never panicked... small pot, small pot, small pot, small pot, and a couple hours later, i've worked up to 40k again, when... Assassinato sits down to my left... GREAAAAAT..... he has like, 85k, top5 stack.... yuck! so... how to pwn him.... 'hey, you assassinato? you look like him' '...ya' 'whaddup, i'm buki' ...a few hands later, he opens button, sb folds, i ship big, he snaps with TT and turns white when i flip over KK
so now i have like 80k, everyone's just SCARED, and everyone's just stalling to get to break, and i'm opening like 80% of pots, and we're in heaven, and we end the night at 106k... top5 stack!
turns out assassinato and this 18yo german kid named max (insanely lag, archetypal online player) are staying at the same hotel as me, so we hop on the shuttle, and get to talking, and he's a really cool guy (like, we'll prolly be friends for life). we're excited for day2. we're joking, how i'm wishing the tables wouldn't break, and how he can't wait for the new table draw, and i'm like, well, i'll be one to your left instead of two to your left....
and then omg the next day i AM directly on his left.... hahahahahaha!! ...but of course 4 of the top players left, are all sitting next to each other lol.... with the other side of the table full of S.A. donks.... :/
i'm playin well, opening and 3betting correct frequencies that ppl just can't play back at me at those stacks, and we cruise to the bubble, at which point the scared money starts stalling, like, literally every hand.
99AK>QQ double (50k ish, where i want 100-200k to be comfortable)
so we're stuck at 39 players (36 pay) with ppl taking 2,3,4 minutes to fold UTG (on the other side of the table from me and assassinato) the same 4 guys, every hand. so i started calling time, and then literally the 4 pros on the table started calling time on those players as soon as they saw their cards... and they would just sit there, and take the full minute each time, no matter what the action... raise, allin, and dude has 46o (norwegian kid on my left saw and told the table, cuz he was yet to act and he'd seen another player's hole cards) and he hollywood's for 2 minutes... it really was not cool... because of this, we played so much fewer hands...
after the bubble, i'm short, and then they skip the 2.5k/5k level, going from 2k/4k to 3k/6k.... i was lucky to get it in as good as AQ vs A9 and 22, but they both hit and i whiff... that pot, i had 38k; sb was allin for like 16k; bb called 2/3 his stack with 22; there was 13k in the middle before any action; so i woulda had 15bbs if i win o well.

we are now 2/5 in cashing 2k+ live events... and we really had a shot to take this down
__________________

2009 goals

2009-01-14T14:11:00.000-08:00

some of my poker goals for 2009:

1. win a sunday major.
2. FT a big live event (1.5k+ buyin, 100k+ score).
3. win a live event (300+ buyin, 50k+ score).
4. grow team ninja to 5-6 members.
5. build a stable of 5-6 horses with 5k BRs
6. 50k+ online score. (done)
7. 100k+ online score.
8. FT FTOPS/WCOOP/UBOC event.
9. WIN FTOPS/WCOOP/UBOC event.
10. 150k net profit from poker (playing + staking).
11. cash out 100k as a real-life nest egg.
12. win 109r.
13. become top75 on pokerdb.
14. >5000 PLBs on p5s.

2009-01-14T12:50:00.001-08:00

been awhile since i posted...

had a crushing december :) i decided to concentrate on online MTTs, and my efforts paid off nicely with some big scores.

o ya... and i FT'd the Sunday Million to start off the new year with a bang :) 60k score... more than 2x my former biggest score... so that was cool :D

good week

2008-10-19T21:53:00.000-07:00

played excellent poker this week. definitely focused.

last three days:

fri: ftp $163 65k 5th for $4.4k
sat: stars $109r $70k 4th for $9.5k
sun: won stars BCPC $4.5k package on $475 satty

thats right baby, i'm goin to vancouver nov20-nov26 baby! :D

jennifear is the nuts...

2008-10-16T13:06:00.001-07:00

because of stuff like this

http://www.pocketfives.com/jennifear/best-of-jennifear-vol-i-3424370.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage

vegas tourneys no good right now...

2008-10-13T12:27:00.000-07:00

just spent a week in vegas.

if you're planning a trip to vegas for poker tourneys... don't :P this depression has really kicked everyone's ass, it seems like... i tried to play the bellagio $540 nightly one night; we were allowed to unregister because there were FIVE TOTAL RUNNERS... they should be getting 75-100 in that one... they had FIVE! the caeasars deepstack classic, and that kind of poker 'series' will still get some fish if the buyins are <$1k... but the $2k+ fields will be loaded! i played in one, and played with: Mark seif, David the Dragon Pham, Theo Tran, i busted JJ Liu, m8kingmoves was there, Jeff Madsen, their posse (7-8 really good internet players obv), as well as a few of the WPT regs who i've seen go deep and play well.... in a field of <120 runners. i ran KK into AA with 31 players left... the ev just isn't there.

new team name

2008-10-02T19:53:00.000-07:00

i had a great idea... if we name our team after a charity... we can gain exposure for them, and advertise them... there are other ways to give to charity than just money. this could possibly be a great way?

something like 'team ONEDROP' ... or something...

sick sick value where you wouldn't expect....

2008-09-28T13:10:00.001-07:00

PokerStars Game #20765701040: Tournament #109499655, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2008/09/28 14:39:36 ET
Table '109499655 76' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: TicociT (9417 in chips)
Seat 2: pairDboard21 (1458 in chips)
Seat 3: nasud 11 (1047 in chips)
Seat 4: bukithepro (1565 in chips)
Seat 5: freezeplay (8279 in chips)
Seat 6: Zockimaczock (5105 in chips)
Seat 7: Yankees31 (3555 in chips)
Seat 8: The-Toilet 0 (4491 in chips)
Seat 9: watoz86 (3522 in chips)
TicociT: posts the ante 25
pairDboard21: posts the ante 25
nasud 11: posts the ante 25
bukithepro: posts the ante 25
freezeplay: posts the ante 25
Zockimaczock: posts the ante 25
Yankees31: posts the ante 25
The-Toilet 0: posts the ante 25
watoz86: posts the ante 25
TicociT: posts small blind 125
pairDboard21: posts big blind 250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bukithepro
nasud 11: raises 772 to 1022 and is all-in
bukithepro: raises 518 to 1540 and is all-in
freezeplay: folds
Zockimaczock: folds
Yankees31: folds
The-Toilet 0: folds
The-Toilet 0 is sitting out
watoz86: folds
TicociT: folds
pairDboard21: folds
Uncalled bet (518) returned to bukithepro
The-Toilet 0 has returned

Axs, Kxs, QJ, QTs, JTs... are all SHOVE in this spot.

reasoning:
1. u have no FE on your own if you openshove
2. if you reshove, u can expect everyone behind you to call very tightly; if they call top 7% of hands, you'll be HU vs original raiser 2/3 times. (calling range: AJs+ AQ+ 88+
3. original raiser is very very wide due to stack size... he's shoving 65% of his hands.
4. if u get HU with original raiser, you scoop 50% of the time.
5. if someone else calls, with top 7% of hands (AJs+, AQ+, 88+) you actually have 25-30% of the pot, including third guy's money.

u add all this up, and it's very very much +ev... you'll have a playable stack, or you're busting. raventhon actually did all the numbers for me, to confirm that this indeed is +cev.... and that means it HAS to be +$ev, cuz you'll end up with a playble stack or bust.

$8r satty....

2008-09-26T21:12:00.000-07:00

woooo! just won a $6k pckg to LAPT San Jose, Costa Rica!!!

takes place Nov3-5

MY VERY OWN POKER POSSE

2008-09-26T13:15:00.000-07:00

i started my very own poker posse... we're gonna call ourselves

TEAM PWNSHOP

obviously pronounced 'pawnshop' :D

FOUNDING MEMBERS:
Ibuki Fukui aka bukithepro
Ben Bagamery aka raventhon, aka sidonis, aka sidnoobis
Julian Rodriguez aka Jaeh00d, aka Jae-rod811

mission:
pwn donks;
read souls;
crush dreams.

a little about me

2008-09-21T08:56:00.001-07:00

i'm 29, japanese, colorado outdoor-sports-bum (as opposed to ski-bum... cuz i love the summers here even more than the winter...) i moved to vail, co 6 years ago... i worked at various loca high-end hotels and athletic clubs until this past april, my last employer laid me off on the last day of the season with no warning and told me 'you can apply for another position like guest service or maintenace' (i'd worked as front office night manager for 2 years...) and that's how it goes in this industry; you're seasonally replaceable... but you know, poker's taught me a lot about life; one of those things being, that when your situation changes, don't look at it as a negative; it comes with the territory. just look ahead, weigh your options, and come to the best decision possible. in my case... i had enough to live off for awhile in the bank, i have roommates who help pay a very reasonable mortgage on my condo (which, thankfully, has doubled in worth since i bought it so good equity there just in case!). and i was actually very curious to see where i could take my game. i wanted to see if i could compete with the best. and this is what i found: i PWNED the good players when i first moved up, just because they didn't know me and they respected ALL my moves. i did an amazing job of only showing down monsters early on, so i was labeled a tightwad by a lot of the top players. but they're good, so they're paying attention, and they realized i was winning way more than my fair share of pots so... i started getting 3bet light pre, and getting called down light, and ppl made moves on me more frequently... and i know how to counter these tendencies, but we're talking about the best players on the net at this point, so the variance is unavoidable... and here's an honest evaluation: i look at the rankings on a couple sites like p5s and bluffmag... i'm ranked #169 on bluffmag's global rankings... mx4ever is ranked top 100 in the world on p5s, as is mossified... i don't think their games are 'sicker' than mine by any means... ask them. (well, moss might have an engorged opinion of himself, lol) and i am JUST getting started with my high-buyin career. once i've got a decent sample of $215+ buyins... top100 on p5s has long been a goal of mine; i hope to vault into the rankings within a few months.

new goals

2008-09-08T09:03:00.000-07:00

so... a couple weeks back, i set some goals for myself... they were:

1. $20k+ score...currently my 3 biggest scores are 13k, 12.5k, 11.4k.
2. win the stars $55R
3. top3 in a sunday major
4. win the stars $109 $50k
5. win the stars $163 $100k
7. FT a WCOOP or FTOPS event
8. win a Triple Crown
9. make p5s top100
10. FT a big live event
11. win a big live event

i'm gonna make a new list...

1. $50k+ score
2. top3 in a sunday major
3. FT a WCOOP or FTOPS event
4. win Triple Crown
5. make p5s top100
6. FT a big live event
7. win a big live event

o my lord!

2008-09-08T08:57:00.000-07:00

my breakout weekend :D

so, after winning the ftp $65k for $16.5k yesterday, i was feeling good about my game obv... and on sunday, i got super deep in the stars 109r 300k (losing QQ vs KT), and... i FT the sunday brawl!!! i was 4/9 going into the FT, so my 4th place finish is just about right.... took home $27.5k!!! that's 44k cashed in 2 events :D

wowow...

'you can't run from your destiny; your destiny chooses you'

2008-09-07T01:23:00.000-07:00

omgomg!! best night of my poker career!

won the ftp $163 $65k ON MY OWN MONEY! $16250 in my pocket!!!

biggest $ amount won, plus it was an outright win, coming back from waaaay shortstack... such complete dominating pwnage... wowow!! :D

taking account that i've spent 3-4k of my own money in the last couple weeks on tourneys on my own dime... i can still easily pocket $10k+ from this!! wooot!

can play the sunday majors pretty confidently tomorrow :D

2008-08-22T09:05:00.000-07:00

i think it'd be a good idea to set goals for my poker career.

1. $20k+ score...currently my 3 biggest scores are 13k, 12.5k, 11.4k.
2. win the stars $55R
3. top3 in a sunday major
4. win the stars $109 $50k
5. win the stars $163 $100k
7. FT a WCOOP or FTOPS event
8. win a Triple Crown
9. make p5s top100
10. FT a big live event
11. win a big live event

another downswing...

2008-07-28T10:28:00.000-07:00

wow... i thought i'd come back from vegas and completely destroy... but i guess confidence doesn't allow the elimination of variance, lol...

2008-07-05T00:36:00.000-07:00

spent a week in vegas, played some magnificent poker, if i may say so...

41st/2400 in my first wsop event, a $2k NL.

more great things to come!

i'm gonna try to play as much live as i can, i pwn!!!

2008-06-25T00:05:00.000-07:00

played great in the $1k supertuesday, except i maybe made a couple tight folds on the bubble; and then i went card dead right after. played some phenomenal poker! woot!

2008-06-21T22:09:00.001-07:00

here, i called flop knowing that a.) most times he doesnt have trips, b.) if i bet 4th and 5th appropriately, i could take this pot away.

Full Tilt Poker Game #6900869790: $12,500 Guarantee (51755224), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:41:31 ET - 2008/06/20
Seat 1: rwga21 (3,312)
Seat 2: Gadsby (9,183)
Seat 3: jwrez (15,860)
Seat 4: Sly Zim 24 (7,111)
Seat 5: McGuiler (2,736)
Seat 6: bukithepro (5,155)
Seat 7: saints3431 (4,895)
Seat 8: wptchamp9 (3,002)
Seat 9: Canadakid (8,017)
bukithepro posts the small blind of 60
saints3431 posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bukithepro [Ah Qh]
wptchamp9 folds
Canadakid folds
rwga21 raises to 360
Gadsby folds
jwrez folds
Sly Zim 24 folds
McGuiler has 15 seconds left to act
McGuiler folds
bukithepro calls 300
saints3431 folds
*** FLOP *** [9h Ks Kc]

bukithepro has 15 seconds left to act
i missed, but villain prob didnt hit this flop big either... what line do i take with a king? check-call, bet, bet sounds about right.
bukithepro checks
rwga21 bets 480

bukithepro has 15 seconds left to act
good, that bet looks like strong 2pr, not trips. looks like i'll bluff him out of a big pot on a later street.
bukithepro calls 480
*** TURN *** [9h Ks Kc] [8c]

bukithepro has 15 seconds left to act
ok, flush draw now, trip kings would protect... but i need to leave enough in his stack so he can fold to my river bet.
bukithepro bets 685
rwga21 calls 685
*** RIVER *** [9h Ks Kc 8c] [4c]
not a terrible river; doubtful he backdoored a flush, so trip kings still best. he'll fold to shove.
bukithepro bets 3,630, and is all in
rwga21 has 15 seconds left to act
rwga21 folds
Uncalled bet of 3,630 returned to bukithepro
bukithepro mucks
bukithepro wins the pot (3,170) nice pot! :D
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,170 | Rake 0
Board: [9h Ks Kc 8c 4c]
Seat 1: rwga21 folded on the River
Seat 2: Gadsby didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: jwrez didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Sly Zim 24 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: McGuiler (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: bukithepro (small blind) collected (3,170), mucked
Seat 7: saints3431 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: wptchamp9 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Canadakid didn't bet (folded)

2008-06-21T22:08:00.001-07:00

here's an example, something i didnt used to do... now i look for good spots to outplay villains with nothing.

Full Tilt Poker Game #6890062007: $12,000 Guarantee ( $22 Rebuy) (51666619), Table 23 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:57:17 ET - 2008/06/19
Seat 1: Sveden House (12,783)
Seat 2: Occy777 (8,147)
Seat 3: Purehouse (13,415)
Seat 4: 10thSTBALLA (7,455)
Seat 5: PlayingTooHigh (18,193)
Seat 6: the angler1 (8,444)
Seat 7: elsobado (28,234)
Seat 8: bukithepro (28,669)
Seat 9: GogogoActionMan (11,950)
Sveden House antes 50
Occy777 antes 50
Purehouse antes 50
10thSTBALLA antes 50
PlayingTooHigh antes 50
the angler1 antes 50
elsobado antes 50
bukithepro antes 50
GogogoActionMan antes 50
GogogoActionMan posts the small blind of 200
Sveden House posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bukithepro [8h 9s]
Occy777 folds
Purehouse folds
10thSTBALLA folds
PlayingTooHigh raises to 1,025 (pot = 2050 now)
the angler1 folds
elsobado folds
bukithepro calls 1,025
within sight of the money, i'll be able to push him off depending on the board. i'll see a flop.
GogogoActionMan folds
Sveden House folds
*** FLOP *** [6c Js 4c] (pot 3075)
nice, a couple draws.
PlayingTooHigh has 15 seconds left to act
PlayingTooHigh bets 1,800 (pot 4875)
bukithepro has 15 seconds left to act
he has big-pair type of hand. if i play scare cards right, i can take this. i'll call.
bukithepro calls 1,800
*** TURN *** [6c Js 4c] [Kc] (pot 6675)
yesssss, my pot!
PlayingTooHigh checks
ok, he has to believe i have a flush. how much to bet? <1/2 pot, so it looks like i want a call, plus i'll have FE on a river shove in case he calls here and river blanks..
bukithepro bets 2,400
PlayingTooHigh has 15 seconds left to act
PlayingTooHigh folds
Uncalled bet of 2,400 returned to bukithepro
bukithepro mucks
bukithepro wins the pot (6,700)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6,700 | Rake 0
Board: [6c Js 4c Kc]
Seat 1: Sveden House (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Occy777 folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Purehouse folded before the Flop
Seat 4: 10thSTBALLA folded before the Flop
Seat 5: PlayingTooHigh folded on the Turn
Seat 6: the angler1 folded before the Flop
Seat 7: elsobado folded before the Flop
Seat 8: bukithepro (button) collected (6,700), mucked
Seat 9: GogogoActionMan (small blind) folded before the Flop

2008-06-21T22:06:00.000-07:00

reflection upon reading 'harrington on cash'

in terms of application to deep stack tournament poker, this book made me change my game from TAG to LAG. i pay soooo much less attention to my own cards, and more on villains' ranges from each position, and whether or not each flop helps their hand range. i understand what makes small-ball work, and at what point my hand becomes strong enough to go from small pot to playing for stacks.
the main idea that i took from it (that was new to my game) is this: tight players try to reduce variance, while loose players embrace it. so when there's a situation where it's almost a toss between calling a folding, but odds say call: a tight player will many times fold incorrectly, in order to reduce variance -- it's extra vigorish to the loose player who will not only call there, but is making the bet to force the fold in the first place. so the LAG players continually collect a tax that the TAG players are willing to pay, to reduce variance. so combining this idea with small-ball poker, i am really accumulating chips earlier, and not having to rely on my push/fold game late in tourneys nearly as much. i call with crap preflop and sometimes flop, esp. vs. strong players who can fold later in a hand, in order to take away pots where i think they'll let go. when i have the lead preflop, i check a TON of flops i hit for deception/balancing/pot control purposes. i go out of my way to play small pocket pairs if my implied odds are better than 10:1.

2008-06-20T23:13:00.000-07:00

won the ftp 40k for $11.4k!! officially my second biggest score ever; but more importantly, it was THE most satisfying win of my career. i've never played better poker in my life... the HU match, was just... a thing of beauty.

2008-06-16T08:40:00.000-07:00

stars held a 10wsopMEpckg guarantee freeroll, for top1000 TLB players; i took home a disappointing 15th for $1k instead of $12k if i placed top10.... damn, that was a big difference.

gotta see what jennifear says about my bustout hand...

looking over my stats, i noticed something.

ftp, last 120 days: 13%ITM.... thats the lowest it ever is for a top pro, usually they're 15-18%... i had been running 21%+ ITM before i got staked; i figure i should currently be running 17-19%, and on stars i am right on, at 19%. so pretty much, last couple months, i've run really bad in the M-ML stages of ftp tourneys... that's where my downswing came from, with help from the 7k+ in BIG tourneys i played. well... nice to figure out where my money went, i guess...

i'd like to keep my opr ratings above 99%....

i'm LAG!!

2008-06-13T13:06:00.000-07:00

i can say for the first time in my poker career that not only am i LAG, i actually know what i'm doing! i'm being the cracker as opposed to the crackee... i now make my money seeing flops, as opposed to making my decisions preflop! i now seek out variance with favorable odds. tight players are paying a tax to reduce variance; a tax that is invariably collected by the loose players. i would rather collect, than pay, this tax... i just need to make sure i don't become TOO aggressive, or TOO loose.

wsop!!

2008-06-11T20:51:00.000-07:00

booked my flights/hotel for vegas.

fly out 6/26, play 6/27-7/2. fly back 7/3. should be a good week :D

2008-06-10T21:30:00.001-07:00

another win today! ftp 55r-a 13.5k, first for $4k+ woot!!

calling as a weapon

2008-06-09T16:24:00.000-07:00

if you call from the blinds, you have an incredibly wide range in the villains' minds... so you can float a ton of flops, and take them away on turn/river esp when scare cards come. this goes beyond the initial benefit of balancing your play.

2008-06-07T20:36:00.000-07:00

won the ftp 22r for 3.8k today. went on p5's and saw that i've won this particular tournament 4 times since march 4.... thats pretty sick, as these are typically 250-300 player fields.

read an article by aaron bartley about the min-reraise... his thought process seems kind of weak, lol. he says how in a live tourney he raised a limper with K6s, flop came Axx, and he got min-checkraised; since it was a minraise, he couldnt fold. limper checks turn, and he wins pot by betting half his stack... i mean, come on! first of all, wtf is he doing, calling the c/r on flop? and when limper checks turn (which is absolutely horrible also... when i min c/r flop, i'm betting strong on turn 100% of the time) which allows him to donk this pot, he proudly explains that he was able to evaluate on the turn and win with a strong bet... but seriously, if i'm the limper, i'm betting turn 100% of the time and so bartley's analysis that 'if he checks turn he's drawing but if he bets again he's super strong' means i would win the pot on the turn 100% of the time... which is of course, why a player like me uses this specific move as a bluff... min c/r flop, bet strong on turn.... villain can't play without close to the nuts, and this is specifically why it's such a good, multi-street move with minimal risk.... i am COMPLETELY leveling him...

'the only way to get smarter, is to play a smarter opponent.'
-fundamentals of chess

all i can say is, that 15-20k downswing... was like paying for education... my game has progressed immensely in the last couple months.

2008-06-04T09:01:00.001-07:00

ITM Finishes
1st	8	3rd	7
1st ties	33	4-10th	53
2nd	6	Other	218

when you are crippled...

2008-06-03T09:29:00.000-07:00

here's a thought:

scenario 1: say you have 50k and M is huge and you have above avg chips and cruising and happy.... and you cruise, and wait for spots, and never find any, and when you do get AA everyone folds cuz youre playing tight; and eventually you bubble FT.

scenario 2: now, say you had 50k, but you get played with, and lose a huge pot, and youre down to 10k, and youre pissed... but you play perfect aggro shortstack poker, and shove/reshove a couple times with like AJs/KQs that you wouldve folded otherwise if you had 50k... but you play those and win, and have 40k when you get AA, and ppl dont give you credit and you triple up to 120k and eventually you win the tourney.

what i realized is, that it's not necessarily a terrible thing, to lose part of your stack to fall to a lower M and you have to play differently... i mean, yes you have to play different strategies with a shorter stack, but because we're so adept at it, it's not THAT disadvantageous: it's a different set of strategic option that you have to employ, but we are aware what they are, and yes, bigger stack feels nicer, but having a bigger/smaller stack completely changes the entire tournament. we should, and do attack it differentlly, and so it's not THAT much more disadvantageous.

1. it's commonly held that if you hold 10% of the chips in play you have a 10% chance of winning the tournament, provided all players are equal skill.
HOWEVER, 2. it's also widely accepted that the value of a chip won is less than the value of a chip lost.
my theory is: player A, with 10% of the chips in play, does NOT have a 10x chance of winning as this same player in the same tournament with 1% of the chips in play.
i suggest, that for the bigger stacks, the % of times they win < % of chips they hold; whereas, for the smaller stacks, the % of times they win > % of chips they hold. this is assuming, equal skill, perfect play by everyone. the big stacks need to play wider ranges vs each other, and therefore are inherently at risk of being exploited by the correctly tight play of the short stacks. the numbers become complicated because MTTs are not winner-take-all; big stacks definitely have a better chance of finishing in the higher money spots. however, we can conclude that a 10x stack does not equal 10x chance of winning.

anyone remember when Joe Hachem won the ME? he sat there, and hardly played a hand... until he went allin with AJ, and announced 'allin, boys! you haven't heard me say that allnight, have ya!' i forget whether he stole that pot preflop, or if it went to showdown and he won a bigger pot... anyway, i just remember him biding his time, letting the big stacks mess with each other, and then getting it in good one time, to become one of the healthy stacks himself... and i do think that is a really good FT strategy, one that i employ often myself. unless i'm the clear chipleader, i'm going to sit back and let the shorties bust and if i do get it in, it'll be with a hand that crushes the bigstacks' opening ranges.

gonna try out this blog thing

2008-06-03T08:37:00.000-07:00

i think it'll be cool to have a place to post my rants, my big wins, my crushing losses... as well as a place to collect articles/lessons i write.

as of this writing:
i've been staked on PTP for 5 months. unless i hit some ginormous score, i'm probably going to continue being backed, as long as i play MTTs.
there's been significant interest in people wanting to be coached. i think i need to start archiving teaching material if i am to do this; as well as put together some articles i've written.
i plan on going to my first WSOP for a couple events at the end of this month.

how's my game right now? hm... well, always improving. in terms of 'levels of thinking', i think i've always had the capability to think at my current level, but not necessarily the skills to capitalize; to play my image vs their hand ranges; to rep hands bigger than their big hands to make them lay down; to play with heart; to play exploitive poker, as opposed to unexploitable poker.
1. what do i have
2. what does he have
3. what does he think i have
4. what does he think i think he has
5. what does he think i think he thinks i have

up until this past month, i've been thinking up to level 4 but playing at up to level 3. meaning, i'd sometimes see a level4 move i could've made, but i simply didn't make them (lack of heart). now, i make those level4 moves whenever i feel it's +ev. of course, the key here, is to play one level, and one level ONLY, above the villain... if villain is only looking at his own cards, and you try to play level 3 against him, well, you're gonna outplay yourself because you're trying to guess what he's thinking, when he's not thinking at all-you cant possibly win.

another thing, is that i'm developing my small-ball game more and more. i used to be a preflop player; and although that can be a very strong tournament strategy that is hard to be exploited, i strongly believe that in order to minimize the effects of variance, you need to be able to see flops and make decisions based on them.
i had a month-long downswing recently, which caused me to diligently search for leaks in my game. what i found, is that i didn't have a 'leak' per se because i was getting in ahead most times. the problem was, i was playing for stacks with big preflop hands like big pair or AK. and my new strategy, sort of, is to see a lot more flops with playable hands (not necessarily premium), and play big pots when i can beat the big pairs-so 2pr, sets, and above. of course if i have AA/KK and i can easily get allin preflop i'll do it. but why not see flops with AK, QQ, along with small pairs, JTs, 79s, etc and if he's too strong, then fine, let him take it. but if you flop big, or if you can take the pot away on the turn or river, you're going to be winning a huge pot. and that's the name of the game, right? to lose little when you lose, and win big when you win. well, if you're getting in preflop all the time, even if you're ahead, you can't control how much you lose when you lose-your whole stack's in there.
i know that i had some level of fear in me, of playing big pots after the flop vs top players and getting pwned... but, 1. most players aren't top players, and they make horrendous errors postflop, and 2. even the top players, can't see your cards. they have lots of experience, and moves in their arsenal; but if you can get them to use the wrong tool at the wrong time, you can exploit them. and even if you can just make them feel like they used the wrong tool, you can exploit them-because good players a. are more aggressive, but b. fold more often than bad players.

some future topics:
hand selection based on table image
the UTG steal and counterstrategies
the resteal-still effective?
the 4bet reresteal-when can i make this move with air?
pot sizing
early in tourneys-to flip, or not to flip